Best choice vs. Choice believed to be the best
This is one of the core concepts of the book so we give it its own page because there is a high chance of potential misunderstanding
When we make a decision in the present, we always make what we believe is the best decision based on our current understanding of reality.
In this book, we are never saying that we are making the absolute best decision. We are simply saying that we are always making what we believe to be the best decision at that point in time. Based on our current understanding of reality at a specific point in time, we are making what we believe is the best decision with the limited information we have at that point in time.
We will only find out in the future if we will be happy with the decision, but regardless of that, what we chose in the past was what we believed was the best decision at that point in time.
For example, you are playing roulette. You must decide whether to bet on red or black. You choose red – based on your feeling or your “hunch” or your guess, meaning you believe red is going to come up. Because you believe that red is going to come up, you believe that the best decision is to bet on red. You bet red – but the wheel comes up black.
Ex post, it is clear that you made a bad decision. But still, when you made the bet, you could not have known the future color, and you believed it was going to be red, so you made what you believed was the best decision by betting on red. The outcome is irrelevant.
The point is:
In the present, ex ante, before the spin, you will always make what you believe to be the best decision.
Retrospectively, ex post, after the spin, you may not be happy with the outcome of the decision. However, it remains that you made what you believed was the best decision based on your understanding of reality at that point in time.
When you understand this idea, you understand why “should” stories make no sense: because, since there can only be one decision believed to be the best, then there cannot be any other alternative reality.