Why the fact that we always make what we believe to be the best decision should not lead to fatalism?

Realizing that we always make what we believe to be the best decision means that alternative realities are logically impossible. At first glance, this might lead someone to adopt a fatalistic stance, believing that since the outcome is inevitable, it is no longer worthwhile to evaluate options, and they might as well just sit on the couch and do nothing.

However, we argue that falling into this “fatalism trap” is a mistake for several key reasons:

1. “Doing nothing” is still a decision Deciding not to make a choice—such as sitting on the couch and doing nothing—is, in fact, still a decision. This decision becomes part of reality and determines what happens next. Furthermore, everyone will always exert at least the minimum effort required to get what they want. If you just want to stay alive, your minimum effort is eating and going to the bathroom; if you want a family or a successful career, your minimum effort will be much higher.

2. Mental laziness leads to suboptimal consequences The brain’s primary function is to carefully evaluate different options. If you take a fatalistic stance and stop putting time and energy into this evaluation, you fall into mental laziness and end up choosing almost at random. Because the quality of your final decision depends directly on the number of options you are aware of, failing to acquire knowledge and explore your options means you will be selecting from a very limited set. This inevitably leads to making suboptimal choices with suboptimal consequences. By contrast, actively putting effort into evaluating your choices expands your options, vastly improving the quality of the decision you ultimately believe is best.

3. The risk of trusting logic over intuition before an event happens (ex ante) While logic shows us after the fact (ex post) that alternative realities were impossible, before an event happens (ex ante), our intuition strongly suggests that we have free choice. Because humans do not know or understand the ultimate, fundamental nature of Reality, blindly following the logical conclusion of determinism is incredibly risky. Logic is useful for simple things like arithmetic, but when dealing with the vast complexity of ultimate Reality, the contradiction between our intuition and logic means it is safer not to draw an absolute conclusion.

4. Personal agency is a prudent “insurance policy” Because we cannot know for sure whether determinism or free will accurately describes ultimate Reality, the safest and most prudent approach is to act as if we have free will and personal agency. By choosing to put in more than the absolute minimum effort, you create the chance that your life could be significantly better. We compare this to buying auto insurance: because you do not know if you will have a crash, you prudently buy the policy just in case. Acting with personal agency is your insurance policy; the cost of making an effort is minimal compared to the potential rewards it can bring to your life.