The Predictive Story
Noticing patterns to create mental maps of the world
We do not know reality directly. We observe it through perceptions.
Think of perceptions as photos taken on a trip: they are images of what we experience. By examining those images, we notice patterns, and from those patterns we build mental maps.
In our daily lives, we must make decisions.
In order to make decisions, we must be able to make predictions.
In order to make predictions, we need to find patterns in what we perceive.
Perceptions reveal patterns. Patterns enable prediction. Prediction guides decisions.
Perceptions and maps are different.
A map is about patterns – this is key. For instance, if you take a photo of the Eiffel Tower, the weather matters greatly. If it is sunny the photo will look completely different from how it would look if it were raining. But when you look at or draw a map, the weather doesn’t matter. The pattern is what is important – unlike the weather, the pattern is what is permanent. If you are making a map, the weather does not matter over time, but the patterns that the roads make matters greatly.
If I take a photo of the Eiffel Tower, it will look different according to whether it is sunny or rainy.
If I draw a map of the Eiffel Tower and its neighborhood, the map will look the same whether it is rainy or sunny when I make the map, because the weather is irrelevant to the pattern of the roads. The pattern is what matters – it is what is going to last for a long time, not the weather.
Let’s say a child has some chocolate. He cannot read. He is going to experiment with his chocolate and some boxes. When he places it in a box people call “trash,” the next day it disappears. When he places it in a box called “fridge” it is still there the next day. He does this several days in a row. From this, he infers a pattern: one location preserves chocolate, the other makes chocolate disappear.
From the repeated experiment of putting the chocolate in the two boxes, he forms a mental map of how reality appears to work without needing to understand the underlying mechanism – it is a heuristic approach, meaning he created this map by experimentation and observation.
This is how predictive stories are created: from the recognition of patterns in repeated actions, and with those we build our mental maps.
We form beliefs by observing patterns, and beliefs are then encoded in mental maps through stories.
Predictive stories are practical and convenient. They help us navigate reality. But since they are built from limited observations, what appears to be an absolute truth may just be a temporary pattern. This creates a useful heuristic for making decisions in daily life but it doesn’t tell us anything about the ultimate nature of reality.